The peak period is right around the corner, and all the signs are pointing to sales being healthier than ever. In fact, it’s predicted that US holiday retail ecommerce sales will be record-breaking this year, increasing by almost 10% versus 2023.
Unfortunately we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what to expect from the sales season, but we have pulled together the next best thing – a set of predictions to help you prepare.
Let’s see what we know about BFCM 2024 so far.
1. Kick off is likely to be earlier than ever
The 2023 peak period caught some brands off guard, starting earlier than ever before and enabling a whopping 56% of customers to begin their holiday shopping in October or even earlier.
Stores should be prepared for a repeat of this trend, and in fact be ready to start talking about their sales even earlier. This year, there are only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas making this holiday season shorter than most other years. We haven’t seen the dates fall in this pattern since 2019, and it’s highly likely that brands will launch their BFCM sales even earlier than they did last year to extend the number of shopping days customers have to make holiday purchases.
2. Customers are kicking off their research earlier too
Brands were not the only ones to start early in 2023, with a high number of customers starting their purchase research well ahead of the sales starting too. We expect to see consumers double down on this selective buying behavior in 2024, with 74% of shoppers saying they will dedicate more time to finding the best product and deals. And in fact, this trend has already begun with BFCM-related keywords already appearing higher and higher on Google Trends.
Why this shift? Firstly, consumers are shopping more selectively and they want to ensure they have enough time to compare products and prices and get the best quality for the best price. Secondly, they don’t want to miss out. Early research enables them to keep an eye on the products they want and buy them the minute they become a bargain. Finally, should they have multiple purchases in mind, good research into all their options allows them to spread their budget and spending – possibly even across multiple months and paychecks.
3. Mobile will continue it’s upward trajectory
Mobile comprised 54% of online sales in 2023, and over the Black Friday period specifically, there was a 10.4% increase in mobile sales. BFCM and the holiday period as a whole delivered more users on mobile than on any other device.
Interestingly however, mobile devices only converted at 3.1%, versus 5.5% which converted at 5.5%. This suggests that customers are likely to switch between devices as they research and buy and your customer experience needs to be top notch wherever they’re browsing and buying.
4. Paid search is likely to be at it’s peak
Data shows that paid search was the highest driver of ecommerce sales across the whole of 2023, responsible for 30% of all online sales. As such, we anticipate that paid search will also play a major part in your BFCM sales.
When we consider the factors above – increased research, and the fact that more shoppers are interacting on mobile – this trend becomes even more inevitable.
This is good news, as customers who come to your site via paid search typically come with very high intent, having searched specifically for your product or brand. However, it will mean that your acquisition costs could rocket over BFCM. You’ll need to work hard to secure second purchases and increase the CLV of peak period shoppers into the new year to counteract this.
5. Discounts and deals are still desired
As much as we’d like to see a dip in discounts, this is a trend that is likely to prevail for another year, and we saw discounts hit record highs in 2023. Data also shows that 19% of shoppers abandoned their carts to find better deals, and 15% abandoned their carts while they waited for a product to go on sale.
We can’t tell you how much you should discount by as that will depend on the price of your products and your profit margins. We also can’t tell you whether every customer needs a discount to buy as that depends on the loyalty of your existing customer base.
However, we can tell you that customers are becoming increasingly conscious of cost efficiency, searching for the perfect combination of quality, their needs being met, and a price they consider reasonable. As such, it’s important to ensure that your holiday promotions are clear, easy to find and easy to understand. It’s also a good idea to highlight quality and value for money within your messaging.
6. Apparel and Health and Beauty brands are likely to see the biggest boom
In the past, BFCM has seen spikes in the sale of big ticket items – we’re thinking electronics, furniture and other larger, more considered purchases, as customers waited for the one item they’d coveted all year to drop in price. This trend hasn’t died completely – in fact electronics remained the second highest-selling category across BFCM 2023, with household appliances not far behind.
However, last year, apparel and accessories and health and beuaty were the highest-selling verticals on Shopify. We expect to see this trend continue across the 2024 sales period. Why? Because the health and beauty vertical has seen the greatest growth of any category across 2024 – likely because consumers continue to prioritize items that improve their wellbeing over less essential purchases. Fashion and apparel may not have grown as quickly, but it has remained relatively flat while electronics has seen some decline.
Behavior from the 2023 sales season suggests that consumers now see the peak period as a time to purchase a healthy mix of everyday and bigger ticket items, meaning a greater share of wallet is likely to be put towards these two most popular verticals.
7. Social commerce will bring sales
Social commerce – allowing consumers to purchase directly through social media netrowks – is undoubtedly on the rise, with eMarketer predicting that 36% of Internet users were purchasing via social channels by the end of 2023.
With social commerce becoming increasingly prevalent, it stands to reason that it will be a steady source of holiday sales too. Social media is also another of the platforms that consumers will use to complete their afore-mentioned research. In fact, 54% of Gen Z, 45% of Millennials and 27% of Gen X say they plan to use social media channels to discover gift ideas this season.
This suggests that your holiday strategy needs to incorporate social media, regardless of the demographic you’re targeting. For some this will mean an increase in sales via social – again tying in with the trend for increasing mobile purchases. For others, this will be an increase in advertising and sharing sales and special offers via social channels. Whatever your approach, social media is likely to play a larger role in marketing strategy this holiday season.
Ideas and inspiration for the 2024 peak period
If you’re in the process of getting your peak period plans ready, then we highly recommend our webinar – the Ultimate BFCM To-Do List. In this session, LoyaltyLion plus six other Shopify experts give you the top items that should feature in your plans. We also recommend revisiting examples from other brands who nailed their BFCM comms and promotions in 2023. We’d love to discuss your BFCM plans with you anytime – just book a time to talk with us.
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